NFL straight-up picks, Week 14: Can the Bills keep their playoff hopes alive in Kansas City? (2024)

Backing the Jaguars on Monday night gave me a losing streak in this section, which is by far the weakest among my picks despite being the games I’m most confident in. This means I’ve been lucky as hell in 2023, but I’ll take it.

There’s a bit of concern about this game, since Derek Carr is in the concussion protocol for the second time in a month and, honestly, probably shouldn’t be playing. But the Saints prepared for this moment by retaining Jameis Winston’s services and including a whole section of the playbook simply titled “Taysom Hill bull[expletive].”

Losing in Week 14 would slice the Saints’ postseason odds down to 10 percent — seven if the Atlanta Falcons win that same day. This is about as close to a must-win regular season game as New Orleans is going to get; a moderate test against an overmatched team with no permanent head coach and the league’s worst record. If the Saints can’t win this one, they deserve to pack it up and start planning their winter vacation.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 8-5 (.615)

I fully understand this is a game where Jacksonville will lean heavily on CJ Beathard and, perhaps, CFL legend Nathan Rourke. But the Browns’ quarterback is Joe Flacco.

Joe Flacco is 38 years old.

Joe Flacco could have been signed by anyone as a rash of injuries washed over the NFL and remained a free agent until November 20.

Joe Flacco had three drives to potentially beat the Los Angeles Rams last week. He recorded a stunning -12.6 expected points added in fewer than 10 minutes of game time and a 20-19 game turned into a 36-19 defeat.

So yeah, I’ll back that defense and home field advantage for two teams in sudden danger of spiraling out. But good god, this game could have been great. Now it’s extremely liable to be hijacked by dumb nonsense.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 12-1 (.923)

Last week I peeled off my Indianapolis Colts pick to turn in an upset pick in an otherwise chalk-y slate. This risk did not pay off as the Tennessee Titans lost in overtime, in part, because they have no idea how to protect their own damn punter.

This week I’ve got a small array of betting underdogs to back. I don’t think Jake Browning can be incredible in back-to-back weeks, but I think he can be good enough at home to beat an Indianapolis Colts whose 7-5 record is the product of an easy schedule (and one great win over the Baltimore Ravens). The Las Vegas Raiders are home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team coming off a bye (good) but who also just put up 10 total points in a primetime loss to the Chicago Bears in their last game (bad) and who doesn’t quite know who their quarterback will be (worse). The Los Angeles Chargers are a home favorite despite having no home field advantage.

But my boldest call is that this flawed Buffalo Bills team can go to Missouri and beat a Chiefs squad in need of a get-right game. I have no numbers to back this up. Buffalo is 1-4 on the road this season and the only win came over the Washington Commanders. They walloped the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, and their best win after that came against … the Raiders? The Buccaneers? Man I don’t know.

But Buffalo is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to let a crushing loss in Philadelphia take root. The Bills are playing for their playoff lives and, potentially, head coach Sean McDermott’s job. Losing Sunday takes their postseason odds down to five percent; this is the team’s most important game of 2023.

That’s enough to get me to eschew all reason, toss aside my other upset picks and roll with Buffalo. It’s all a gut feeling based on a team I can’t imagine coming into Arrowhead Stadium with any other emotion but fury. And that should be enough to boost them over the top and remain in the playoff race at least one more week.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 10-3 (.769)